Wednesday, September 18, 2002

Raising the level of debate

Germany's forthcoming election is becoming about the war on Iraq: is it such a bad thing?

This weekend the third richest country in the world goes to the poll to elect a new government. The result is still uncertain, in part thanks to Germany's complex electoral and political system, but more so because electors are not offered a great deal of choice. This is not to detract from the two main candidates to the Chancellorship, although both are far from impressive, but it is a simple reflection on the little difference between the two choices. With the ideological divide between left and right fading, elections all over the world seem increasingly fought on small, detailed and often parochial issues. The risk of descending into the trivial is real and any serious discussion about broader issues should be welcome.

This is why I disagree with an article on the IHT (from the Was. Post) about the present Chancellor stand on the war on Iraq. Regardless of my personal opinion on the matter itself, I found it incredible that the Washington Post of all papers should argue with raising the level of discussion.

For historical reasons, Germans are wary of their country involvement in any war. The recent increased role of Germany in the international scene is welcome but so is a serious debate on such issues as making a war. Politicians should not blindly follow instant polls but, at the same time, cannot disregard the will of the people who are electing them. Schroeder tough stand against the war on Iraq, misguided as it may appear from Washington, reflects a real unease in his constituency. Ignoring it, dismissing it to talk only about a tax cut or a reform of the pension system means forgetting that politics should be not only about managing our wallet but also about shaping our life and the world that surrounds us.

posted by Mooraq at 5:58 PM

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Monday, September 16, 2002

For a Fistful of Barrels

The road to Baghdad is paved with oil

The IHT read my mind (I was discussing this subject yesterday) and poses an interesting question: what is going to happen to all that oil currently sitting under Saddam's bunker? Let's play a little bit of our favorite game: Fantapolitic. Let's say the Bush boys are really going to get rid of Saddam (I would bet on it). Despite saying that they aren't interested in nation-building, I would be surprised if the US would allow a simple swap of a dictator with another (with all the future risks this entails). Maybe a federal democracy would be a better choice. All tribal, religious and ethnic components of Iraq fairly represented in it. At this point the US would probably find in the new Government the staunchest of allies.

To sum it up, we would have an oil-rich nation (probably one of the top four world's producers) closely linked to the US. This would reduce dependency to Saudi oil, currently paid at the devil's bargain price of putting up with Saudi estremism. Maybe all US forces stationed in Saudi Arabia could be moved into a more friendly and liberal environment, like a democratic Iraq. Then serious pressure would be exercised on the Saudis to liberalise. Arabia would seriously risks imploding under the double forces of internal unrest - part extremist-lead but also partly a genuine, bottom-up request for more democracy - and external pressure from the US. We could see a completely different Arabia emerging from the ashes of this one.

It that were to happen, some of the most reactionary forces in the Islamic religion would suddenly lose resources and influence. Maybe a more moderate view of Islam would emerge and the other Middle-Eastern coutries would realise that there is an alternative to the brand of despotism they are used to.

It's a lot of maybes, I know, but a scenario like this at present has moved from impossible to implausible. Who knows? It might be that tomorrow will bring what today looks like wishful thinking. And it could also represent the best chance for the whole region to emerge from the middle-ages they are currently locked in.

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