Friday, April 11, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 5:17 PM
Where Is Saddam?
The hunt for the dictator is on
Rumors of his demise may have been exaggerated. While his regime is collapsing everywhere in Iraq, the top man himself is still missing.
My guess is that he is in Quaim, where the US troops have found stiff resistance despite it being of no strategic importance. I think Saddam, realizing that his days were numbered, tried to move towards the Syria border, possibly to sneak out of the country and try to hide somewhere. He is probably stuck there, as I don’t believe Syria has any interest in letting him through. I hope he is found soon; his capture or death could finally signal the end of hostilities and allow Iraq to move on.
posted by Mooraq at 11:01 AM
Rebuilding Iraq
The war is almost won, but real victory is still far
The chaotic situation in Iraq was to be expected. The fall of a regime is always a time of anarchy and looting, especially in a country as complex as Iraq. Nevertheless a number of developments seems to be confirming some of the worst fear about the future of Iraq.
The murder of the pro-US Iman Al-Kohei as well as the trigger-happiness of some US troops are but two examples of the massive problems that we will be facing in restoring Iraq and implementing a democratic style of government in a country that has been thorn by civil wars for most of its history.
Shia in the south, Sunni in the center, Kurds in the north, Iran fomenting from the east, Syria inciting from the west,
Turkey watching carefully from the north, other regional regimes hypocritically clamoring for a democratic Iraq are very volatile recipes for an explosive mixture.
To me the format of a viable future seems pretty clear (yes, I want to play the armchair retired-general): have US troops mop up the final sacks of resistance as soon as possible. Bring in international police forces under UN supervision (police forces, NOT military, an entirely different concept) to restore and maintain order. Endorse a UN-led interim Civil Government including representatives from various Iraqis ethnic/religious group. Begin discussion on a Constitution modeled, for instance, on the Swiss one. Everything else would be an invitation to present and future chaos.
Thursday, April 10, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 3:20 PM
Magnanimous In Victory
Robert Kagan on what America should do next
Article by Kagan (he of “US are from Mars, EU from Venus” fame) on how the US Uberpower should be nice and magnanimous in victory.
I subscribe to his view that winning the peace will require restrain and diplomatic ability beyond what has been shown so far by the US. The point that he does not touch is if he thinks this administration has the brain to do that or just the brawn for the war.
posted by Mooraq at 11:55 AM
The Importance Of the UN
For all those who would write the UN off
The IHT publishes the address given at the memorial service for Carlo Urbani, the WHO doctor who first discovered SARS and died of infection.
This is an extract from a letter Carlo wrote to a friend:
I made of my dreams my life and my work. Years of sacrifice allow me today to live next to problems that have always interested and disturbed me. Today those problems are also mine as their solution represent the everyday challenge that I need to accept…the dream to provide access to health to the most disadvantaged segments of the population has today become my work. And in those problems I shall raise my children, hoping to see them become aware of the larger horizons that surround them and perhaps to see them grow up following dreams apparently unreachable as I have done
A sad reminder of the work being done every day around the world by the thousands UN workers that are trying to make this world a better place. So long Carlo…and thanks.
Wednesday, April 09, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 3:59 PM
Winning The Peace - Part 3
A democratic oxymoron
This article on the Was. Post raises few interesting questions. What if the US creates a democratic process in Iraq and then doesn’t like what comes out of it. The famous domino theory of an Iraqi democratic state than make peace with Israel and convince all Arabs that the westernization is actually good for them, might be a big dream. For instance, chances are that, if asked, most Iraqis would rather see Israel swallowed by the water than recognise it. And even on the whole issue of relationship with the US, I am not so sure that a democratic Iraq would be such a staunch ally of Mr. Bush and co. It is not a coincidence that the US has for years supported autocratic regimes in various regions of the world (take for instance Egypt or Saudi Arabia) rather than push them towards democracy.
The equation democracy=friend of the US was valid in Europe during the Cold War, but it hardly applies today to the rest of the world and especially to the Middle East. We already had some taste of what Arabs democratically think, and the US did not like it too much. The treatment reserved to Al Jazeera is a clear proof of how well the US will take democratic criticism from the Arabs. The question is, does the US prefer un-democratic friendly regimes (like Saudi) or democratic un-friendly states? This is the issue that will define the post-Saddam and probably the whole Middle East in the foreseeable future.
posted by Mooraq at 11:52 AM
Why We Are Fighting
A reminder
Leaving all political consideration aside, this is why getting rid of Saddam and his butchers is definitely a v. good thing.
posted by Mooraq at 10:31 AM
Winning The Peace – Part 2
A reminder from the NYT
From the NYT/IHT, on why the US should hand over Iraq to the UN asap.
posted by Mooraq at 10:08 AM
Winning The Peace – Part 1
Keeping Iraq together will be difficult
With most of Iraq free from Saddam (or conquered by the US, depending on your point of view), the burden of making it a decent place to live falls squarely on the occupying troops at present. First signs are not encouraging. In Najaf a local militia, apparently with American backing, has been terrorizing the population. In Uum Qasr it’s now more than a week that locals are without water and the situation is degenerating into anarchy. The same appears to be happening in Basra.
Given that the war is not finished yet and the first concern is to end it as soon as possible, still the US should stop a moment and take stock of the huge task ahead. Dreaming of a peaceful Iraq emerging blissfully from the ruins of the war is, exactly, a dream. The reality is that it will take a lot of work and money and I am not so sure that the US is willing to commit both. US troops are notoriously unable and unwilling to operate as police, let’s just say that their touch is not exactly light, an important requirement for low intensity tasks as policing. The US should realize that it is in its interest to move as soon as possible to an interim UN-led administration able to reorganize and pacify Iraq.
Tuesday, April 08, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 1:35 PM
Big Challenges Ahead
Creating an economic system from scratch
With all the attention focused on the end stage of the war and the perils of the political reconstruction, I have seen few analysis about the economic perils facing Iraq. This article from the Economist is a good high level summary of the immense task ahead.
Iraq is a country without a currency, without a tax system, without a functioning economy basically. Its industrial infrastructure, especially the oil one, is obsolete to say the least, it will take years (and lots of money) to bring it back to what it was 15 years ago, and that is not saying much. The property rights for most of the country are not clearly established. The government debt is a black hole and so on and so forth.
For me, that’s another reason to favour a big and early involvement of the UN in the post-Saddam. The enormous costs of reconstruction cannot come from the US alone, as the US is certainly not willing to spend a couple hundred billion dollars on rebuilding Iraq, but to seriously involve the international community, from Germany to Japan to, let’s say it, France, we need a UN supervision. Nobody will chip in funds only to have them managed by a retired US general and paid to US companies to rebuild Iraq. A direct US control would then inevitably slow the pace of reconstruction and that is something nobody can allow to happen. The US (and the rest of the world) needs an economically and socially strong democratic Iraq raising from its ashes as soon as possible. An enlightened self-interest should suggest the US Administration to hand over Iraq as soon as possible to international institutions. The World Bank and the IMF could manage the interim monetary institutions, the UN the civil structure until local authorities are ready to take over. The US as “majority shareholders” in both institutions (and the one providing firepower) would have a great say on what was happening but without being exposed to accusation of being an occupying power.
posted by Mooraq at 1:13 PM
A Different Point Of View
How Arabs are seeing the war
From the BBC, a summary of headlines from Arab media in the Middle East. Many doubts are raised about the true intention of the US for the post-war.
I particularly like this comment from the Iranian Hamshahri: America has undertaken a dangerous surgery and it is not yet clear whether the patient will calmly advance through the process of recovery and be able to get up after a while to travel down the road of development using its wealth, or whether the patient will succumb to an illness far worse than the illness that the Ba'th Party constituted.
I hope the US will do its best to prove doubters wrong.
Monday, April 07, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 5:19 PM
The Post War Iraq
Will Tony convince George?
George and Tony, the two best buddies (or a man and his poodle if you listen to some people) are meeting again, this time in Belfast. The location could not have been chosen better to remind the US President of the results of a quasi-military occupation in a hostile environment. The post-war Iraq will be a place not so different from Northern Ireland, with different religious and ethnic groups at odds – to say the least – between themselves and foreign soldiers tasked with keeping the peace but wary of potential attacks against themselves. As the UK has painfully learned, managing a place like this is a difficult thing to do.
There is a big risk that the US will try to occupy military Iraq for a while. As Colin Powell recently pointed out, the US has invested so much in this war it is not simply going to hand over things to the UN. Except that is exactly what it should be doing, and Tony will try to convince George on this issue.
A US military occupation would lack the legitimacy of a UN presence and would be extremely difficult to justify when the whole point of the war was supposedly to liberate Iraqis from Saddam. It would also confirm the worst suspicions of million of people that think this war is about oil. Let’s hope that Tony’s voice sounds louder than that of Paul Wolfowitz and co.
posted by Mooraq at 1:25 PM
War Tribunals
Where to judge Saddam?
At the (hopefully soon) end of the war, the main task will be reconstruction, but not a lot of thought has been devoted to dealing with those Iraqis accused of crimes against humanity or in breach of the Geneva Convention. A fair trial will be an important part of proving the world – especially Arab - that the war was really about freedom for Iraq and not a vendetta or an oil-driven colonialist adventure.
I already offered my idea.Pete Williams at NBC has a couple more.
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