Friday, May 09, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 5:29 PM
Growing Up
Accession is happening, resistance is futile
Silently, away from the limelight of foreign policy, the 10 new EU members are entering the European institutional family. And since they are now officially in, there is no stopping or bullying them, as Chirac has learned recently.
Poland and the other euro-starts have clear priorities and know what they want. They have already demonstrated the ability and will for long negotiations, both very important qualities in the European institutional bargaining process.
The new counties will bring in their fresh energies and young populations, in exchange they will be part of the richest club in the world, have access to the biggest market in the world and see their GNPs – if history is a guide – quadruple in ten years.
Thursday, May 08, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 4:36 PM
Modern Don Quixote
European Central Bank is fighting windmills while the house is coming down
There are a number of words to define the ECB, which has refused for the nth time to lower interest rates, but the most appropriate that now springs to mind is IDIOT.
In the face of economic woes bordering on deflation, a strong appreciation of the Euro and a string of negative news from the European industrial front, the ECB keeps burying its head in the sand. Its hiding behind the smokescreen of the 2% inflationary target is silly: even if the mandate of the ECB is quite explicit, there is room to consider other factors then pure and simple inflation in making rate decisions.
I am afraid that the ECB is becoming so caught up with its own need to demonstrate that it is independent from pressure that is pursuing a suicidal mission. Also, while a steady hand would be needed at the till in these confusing times, good old Wim has not the charisma or the personality to provide it. Unfortunately the more apt candidate that was supposed to replace him, the French Trichet, is so caught up in legal troubles that his fate is uncertain, and another prospect candidate is not available at the moment.
So the ECB continues to sing its song alone, while the orchestra has changed tune a while ago. At the going rate, it all risks to end up like the band playing music on the Titanic.
Wednesday, May 07, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 5:57 PM
Polish Polka
New Europe is scratching its head
A lot of people were surprised last week by the US announcement that Poland was going to control one third of Iraq. Granted, it is the northern third, which is the Kurd part and relatively pacific. But still, for an emerging country with little military capacity and public finances in not great state, Poland seemed a little far-fetched as a occupying military power.
My doubts were increased by the lack of enthusiasm of the Poles at the announcement. I suspect that Rumsfeld may have decided for them without asking too many questions. I imagine the discussion between Rummy and the Polish defense minister as something like this:
Rummy: Do you mind lending a hand to stabilize Iraq
Polish minister: Sure, Poland will do its part. We have already sent you our best troops, all of 200 of them.
Rummy: Ok, I will let you know how you can help
Then, applying his time-tried technique of kicking the enemies hard but kicking the allies harder, Rummy went out and announced that Poland was committing itself to a huge stabilization and rebuilding effort (for which it was wholly unprepared). Poland will now have to do a careful balancing act between the US and Europe.
Already some strains are showing, especially when Poland decided to steal a page from Rummy’s book and announce to the world the German troops are going to join the Polish mission, without bothering to announce it to the Germans first. This goes toshow that is not easy to change partner at every dance and keep everybody happy.
Nevertheless this could be a good occasion to rebuild some bridges between Europe and the US, with Poland acting as a chaperone. If only the Rummy boys could be convinced to relinquish their iron grip and cooperate a little bit more with the UN.
posted by Mooraq at 1:47 PM
What Happened To All Those WMD?
..and why isn’t anybody scared?
The US (and a few friends) made war on Saddam because of his nasty WMD. War won, dictator vanquished (and vanished) but of WMD, no trace. Should we be worried? Yes.
Assuming that Rummy and the Pentagon agree that neutering WMD is a pretty big priority, they are probably putting a lot of manpower in finding them. But so far with no result: we haven’t found much more than a couple of bottles of what may or may not be some viral agents. This means that either the WMD are still hidden somewhere or that they have been stolen. Unless, of course, they were never there in the first place.
The last two options are quite scary; if they have been stolen we just have to pray they will not turn out (and on) in some big city either in Europe or the US. If they have never been there then we have all been lied to by the US Administration, which disseminated false information to start a war it wanted anyway. Retrospectively it would lend some value to the French stance at the UN.
So, we must hope that the WMD are still hidden somewhere, even if that does not bode very well for the efficiency of the US intelligence apparatus.
Tuesday, May 06, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 5:49 PM
On Movies
Did we lose the taste for good cinema?
My weekend was a deeply cinematic experience. I went to see three movies in three days: I hadn’t been for a while and I felt it was time to catch up. I saw “How to lose a guy in 10 days” (selected by my wife, hummmm I hope it was not a hint), X-men 2 (selected by me) and The Leopard (by common agreement).
I admit the first 2 were sort of fun and, as far as current availability of movies go, pretty decent yarns. But then I saw the Visconti’s masterpiece and I was reminded the difference between brain-dead entertainment and art, between short bursts of explosions kinetically put together to please a short-attention-span generation and a carefully crafted opera which is not afraid to build characters, explore plots and subplots and to have dialogues longer than three phrases.
40 years on, the Leopard maintains all its ability to capture an audience and hold it for three hours (in Italian!) while the only special effects are the director’s amazing abilities to build scenes that look like baroque paintings in 3D. Looking at what is on offer today, with a summer calendar composed by movies that are either sequels, remakes or spin-off from comics or TV series, I cannot but subscribe to Burt Lancaster’s words as the Prince of Salina in the Leopard: “We were leopards and lions, but now it’s the time of jackals and hyenas”. How true my dear prince, how true.
posted by Mooraq at 9:32 AM
Fingerprints
Some encouraging sign on the US-French relationship
Behind the curtains of spiteful words, some level of cooperation is being restored between France and the US. Initiatives aimed at tackling terrorism and international crime (often related) are underway. Attorney General Aschroft on Monday was the first high ranking US officer to visit France since the row over Iraq began.
Let’s hope this encouraging sign will be confirmed in the forthcoming G8 meeting and, even more importantly, in the multilateral trade negotiations whose success is in everybody’s interest.
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