Friday, May 16, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 4:45 PM
Stop The Rethoric, Welcome The Pragmatism
Less stupid words and more intelligent facts, please
The US-France row is escalating, or is it? While rabid members of the US Administration and media appear to be happy to spread lies among the unsuspecting public, steady-minded people on both sides are doing their best to keep the common objectives in focus.
In case anybody forgot, the bomb blast in Saudi the other day was an alarm bell that terrorism is still out there, threatening us all. It is not only silly but also outright dangerous to keep on the childish dispute going. Let’s move on to more serious business and start acting as adults.
The same observation applies to some Europeans who are silently gloating for the problems that the US is facing in stabilizing Iraq. It’s in everybody’s best interest that Iraq transition to a democratic state works, and that the Middle East peace process is restarted. We should all start working towards the common goal, even if we sometimes disagree on the tactical points.
posted by Mooraq at 2:40 PM
Welcome To A New Boy
IS goes on holiday for a couple of days
International Sentinel will take a couple of days of leave to go visit a newly arrived baby. Manfredi, my nephew, was born last Wednesday and it’s a lively little boy. I am taking a little vacation to go and see him. I will be back on Monday.
Have a nice weekend you all.
Thursday, May 15, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 4:13 PM
IQ Tests?
Momentous decisions, maybe
British Chancellor Gordon Brown will announce on the 9th of June the results of his 5 tests about Britain joining the Euro. Everybody already knows that he will say that Britain is not ready yet, but probably will leave the door open for further assessment at a later time.
The Euro debate in Britain is very peculiar. For all the New Labour claims that the decision is an economic one, the reality is that the Euro is first and foremost a political creature. Its economic effects, especially the long term one, are difficult to fathom; it is after all an historical first. Will the rigidity of a one-size-fits-all monetary policy neutralize the obvious positive effects in terms of price-transparency and increase in intra-Europe trade? Only time will tell.
Britain instead seems bent on analyzing in a scientific way what is scientifically unpredictable. I suspect that these 5 tests are a clever way for Labour to avoid a real debate.
It is a shame because Britain could benefit from some open and clear debate about the Euro as well as about its own place in the world. The British public is daily fed anti-Euro rubbish by its tabloids and newspapers (things like “poor old lady in Normandy is not able to buy her groceries anymore since she does not understand the prices!!”) while no serious analysis is made about what are the consequences of staying out instead of entering the Euro and of having stronger ties with the rest of Europe.
In a time of momentous changes in the European Union – from the enlargement to the new Constitution – Europe and Britain could both benefit from a more active British participation in the decision-making process. Unfortunately, the only discussion currently going on in London is about Brown’s 5 tests.
posted by Mooraq at 3:16 PM
Argentina
With Menem gone, good luck to Argentina
Former president Menem retired from the presidential ballot (which he was certain to lose), paving the way for Nestor Kirchner to become Argentina’s next president.
I don’t know Kirchner that well, neither probably do Argentineans, but his economic team, headed by Lavagna, is sound and his promises not so populists as your usual Peronist. I wish him luck as he will need it. Argentina has barely survived its recent economic crisis and some hard work and tough choices are needed to put it back on track.
Still, Mr. Kirchner could take heart for the example of Lula in Brasil. The results of Lula’s presidency so far are quite encouraging. Orthodox financial strategies coupled with a sincere attempt at reducing poverty and increase social inclusion seem to be working.
Argentineans have traditionally looked down to its bigger neighbor, considering themselves a cut above fellow Latin Americans. Now it’s the time to stuff some pride and learn for Brasil success.
Wednesday, May 14, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 2:44 PM
Pacification, Terminator Style
The US is going the wrong way about stabilizing Iraq
Since that sissy of Jay Garner has demonstrated not being up to the Rummy standard of toughness, Paul Bremmer, the new US viceroy of Iraq, has decided to show immediately how tough he is.
Confronted with non-stop looting, riots and anarchy in Iraq, he has announced today that US troops will start shooting looters at sight according to the NYT. Great, this is exactly what was needed to calm down the country! While that could have been a good idea a month ago, right at the end of the war - when Rummy’s attitude was that “stuff happens” - now it’s simply idiotic to go back to martial rule and expect that Iraqis will be happy about it.
As I suspected all along, the Pentagon, for all its military might, is not used and does not have the capabilities to deal with situations where non-lethal force is needed. There is a reason why the Army does not patrol the streets of NY or Forth Worth. And it’s not surprising to find the British, trained by years of low intensity conflict and policing duties in Northern Ireland, doing a much better job of controlling Basra.
Needless to say, an involvement of a multinational police force, possibly made up by NATO and under the blessing of the UN would be much more effective, but I suppose that would offend the unilateralist hawks in the Administration. "No way", they are probably thinking, "that we give up the Iraqi prize to those European surrender monkeys". In that case: go on shooting Paul, I am sure that it will make the Iraqi love you. And if you are an Iraqi: I would abstain from moving my furniture around in the next few days if I were you.
Tuesday, May 13, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 5:53 PM
Terror Ugly Face
Al Quaeda is still out there
The horrible death toll in Saudi Arabia is a terrible reminder that the war with terror is far from over.
The war on Iraq did not do much to quell the rage of Islamic fundamentalists around the world. If anything, it added to the list of grievances, most of them imaginary, that this bunch of fanatic lunatics uses to justify its actions.
At these moment there are two powerful weapons in the democratic world arsenal: Iraq and the Palestinians. If we will be able to make the former stable and prosperous and the solve the issue of the latters, we will demonstrate to all the Muslim masses around the world that there is a better alternative to the medieval world predicated by Bin Laden and his minions. On the other hand, if we will be unable to do so, these issues will come back to haunt us, fuelling the most extremists sentiments amongst Arabs and Muslims worldwide.
The battle for the hearts and the minds starts here, today.
posted by Mooraq at 2:26 PM
Peace And Apartheid
How NOT to achieve peace
Apparently Sharon is true to his traditional hawk persona and has no interest whatsoever in achieving peace. Unless, of course, peace means the elimination (physical and political) of the Palestinians that keep on infesting Gaza and the West Bank.
The picture offered by this article from Haaretz is quite bleak. Sharon seems to favour his own version of the roadmap, where the Palestinian state will be made up of 10 Palestinian Bantustans subject to Israeli rules. It’s very sad to see Israel, given its historical past, even thinking about putting people in what are essentially ghettos. This Israeli version of the apartheid is in the long term doomed, as it was in South Africa. In the modern world it is increasingly difficult, especially for a democracy of sort, to enslave people (which is what this plan actually does). But the short-term effect of this plan would be, let’s say, explosive, and its repercussion could end up rocking the rest of the world given the very delicate state of relations between the Arab and the Western world.
If this is indeed Sharon's plan and the US goes along for the ride, it will be a crime of heinous proportions. The US Administration should show its famous determination, so far used only against Saddam, in pushing Sharon to the table with some real ideas for peace, not this travesty.
Monday, May 12, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 4:12 PM
Bargaining Chips
What Palestinians and Israel will have to put on the table
If, and it’s a huge IF, Palestinians and Israelis are serious about peace, they will have both to offer painful (for each one) concessions.
There are many controversial points which will need to be hammered out, the role of Jerusalem first and foremost as well as the access to the water reserves. But there are other issues that are as thorny at present that will need to be more negotiable in the future.
For the Palestinians one such issue will be the right of return, Israel will never allow 5 million plus Palestinians to settle in Israel, that is a showstopper and, in reality, I don’t believe that any Palestinian really believe this possible at this point. It is more a point of honor and one that floundered (or was used as an excuse) for the failure at Camp David a few years ago.
For Israel, this will mean the dismantling of the settlements. They are of no use whatsoever and territorially Israel would be much more rational and safe without them.
Of course, extremists on both sides will state that these two conditions are unacceptable. The reality, though, is that to make peace you need to be willing to make compromises, and these are two issues that are not really important except for little minorities on both sides. The sooner both parties realize that, the better.
posted by Mooraq at 3:52 PM
The Pace Of Peace
The peace is moving like a snail with a bellyache
Compared with the speed of the war, the pace at which peace is advancing in Iraq is disappointing. The US military, as many worried, is not proving very good at peacekeeping. Even the task of re-starting the basic utilities has not been completed; let alone the move towards a more stable economic and political situation.
Some of the US pro-consuls are already being called home, a sure sign that their performance has been far from excellent. I am afraid that the problem lies not with the persons – although putting a general, albeit a retired one, in charge of rebuilding always seemed an odd choice to me – but with the US attitude and plans, or rather the lack of them. The whole post-war smelled suspiciously amateurish since the beginning. In addition to that, the notorious rifts between State and Defense departments have hindered a more programmatic effort of post-war planning.
The US should start to involve more the UN or, at least, NATO in helping with the transition. Iraq, this is increasingly clear, will not be happy with remaining a US colony for long and a more multinational force (with adequate mandate) will have more authority to guide the transition (the US could be smartly be pulling the string anyway, but in a less obvious way). If not, the risk is that the US will face increasing hostility from the locals. What will the army do if confronted in a few months by a mass of shias shouting “Yankee Go Home”? Start shooting to disperse them? I don’t believe that will win many hearts and minds.
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