Thursday, May 22, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 5:34 PM
Another One Bites The Dust
Bush is leaving some children behind
Another day, another resignation from the Bush Administration. Christine Todd Whitman goes the way of Ari Fleischer, Paul O’Neil, that other lady that was in charge of selling the US values to Arabs (yes, the one who resigned on “health grounds” ahahaha and was never replaced), the whole economic team at the Treasury, Karen Huges etc. etc.
Shame that Rummy is still there.
posted by Mooraq at 5:22 PM
US and Europe
Some bedtime reading
Don’t wait for the new installment of Harry Potter’s magic adventures, you can get as much reading satisfaction from these 25 articles on the status of US-EU relations. These have been commissioned by the Greek EU presidency from some of the foremost experts in the field.
Actually, jokes apart, they offer a good overview of many issue at the core of the US-EU relations and I find them less dogmatic than the manichean views of Robert Kagan.
posted by Mooraq at 5:15 PM
The Opposite Of Intelligence
What happened to all those WMD?
While US troops are still searching for Iraqi’s WMD – without a lot of success, I may add – some fine minds at the Pentagon have realized that the CIA intelligence work was not perfect. Surprise, surprise!
Considering that before the war the US and Britain tried to make the case against Saddam with some low class forgeries downloaded from the Internet, to say nothing of the intelligence failures highlighted by the 9/11 enquiry, it’s about time the CIA gets some reform and start to show some signs of intelligence life.
Wednesday, May 21, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 2:00 PM
Domino?
What is happening in Iran
Iran, a proud member of the axis of evil club, seems up to its old terrorist tricks. The US is accusing it of harbouring some Al Qaeda top honchos, as well as of keeping active on the WMD front with its nuclear ambitions. Nothing new under the sun?
Actually, a closer look at Iran gives us a more nuanced result. As reported by the Italian newspaper La Stampa (in Italian), things may be changing for the best. A number of influential intellectuals and politicians have just published a letter of intent, denouncing the theocratic regime and its religious tyranny, as well as asking for freedom and justice. The importance of the document is in the names that have signed it: from Hashem Aghajari, the writer condemned by the religious tribunal to death penalty for blasphemy, but also religious authorities like mullah Ashkevari and influential politicians as the former secret service minister Said Hajarian.
A political opposition is coalescing around an uncompromising reform agenda, more intransigent than the traditional Kathami-led group and less interested in working within the “correct” political channels. Having few hundred thousands US troops around the corner has helped. Remains to be seen what will be the regime response to this challenge. Not so long ago students’ demonstrations were crashed in blood by the secret police and the “guardian of the revolution”. But at least something is stirring in the far-from-monolithic Iran Islamic Republic.
It’s a bit optimistic to read these events as the proof of the neo-cons domino theory, but it seems to comfirm at least that a window of opportunity is now open in the Middle East. Stabilizing Iraq and bringing peace to Israel could tilt the scale in the region in favour of reforms and freedom.
Tuesday, May 20, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 5:53 PM
Election Time In Spain
Two very different ballots
Next week is election time in Spain. On the 25th people will be voting for the local elections in what is seen as a test of confidence in Prime Minister Aznar. Polls are not kind towards the current Government. Its support for the US in the war on Iraq has turned away many voters, including the very influential Catholics who were strongly opposed to the military intervention.
With the general election still more than a year away Aznar is not too worried, but success for the Socialists and, even worse, for the Basque nationalists in the north could spell trouble for the remaining part of his mandate. Spain has a federalist structure and local government can be quite a heavy counterbalance to the central power in Madrid. After many years in the swamps of opposition, Socialists hope for a resounding success. They need one if they want to have a chance for the next general election.
Meanwhile, in Barcelona, all attention is focused on another election. After the unsuccessful tenure of Gaspart, the Barcelona Football Club is going to elect a new president on the 31st of May. Given the symbolic stature of Barca for the Catalans, this election is as bitterly fought as any political campaign. Regardless of the new president, all fans will be hoping to see Barca going back to its historical status of football-powerhouse. The failures of the last few seasons have been embittered by the success enjoyed by Real Madrid, Barca’s traditional enemies, and that is simply not acceptable to all Barca fans.
posted by Mooraq at 3:14 PM
Nation Building
Damned if you do it, damned if you don’t
The unsuccessful start of the post-Saddam Iraq serves not only to highlight the lack of US strategy for after the war but also the quandary the US has put itself in.
Utilities, the economy, schools, hospitals, all these are dependent on people’s ability to move and gather together without danger. Unfortunately security is in short supply in Iraq, showing that the US has not learned much from Afghanistan. Cooling down the situation will not be easy and it is becoming more difficult as each day passes and “alternative” forces (Shia militants in the south, Kurd soldiers in the north) take upon them the task of policing.
With hindsight, the US should have used more force in the immediate aftermath of the victory and make clear to everybody that looting and anarchy were not allowed. Instead Rummy decided that “stuff happens” and just let it go, creating a vicious spiral of lawlessness and violence.
The quandary the US finds itself at the moment is that it is wary of employing military forces for policing – and they are right: you cannot police from inside a tank – for fear of appearing as colonialist conquerors. But at the same time Iraq will descend into anarchy without a stronger engagement, and Kurds, Shias and other groups will try to carve it into separate pieces. So the US will lose if they use force – imagine Al Jazeera showing US soldiers shooting on Iraqi civilians – but if they don’t they will be accused of destroying Iraq.
A smart move may be to involve the UN, or at least NATO, to step in and help with a strong international endorsement for the reconstruction efforts and providing military police personnel – much more useful than soldiers in this situation - , but somehow I don’t see this happening.
Monday, May 19, 2003
posted by Mooraq at 4:45 PM
Demolition Work
Burning the road-map
Another day, another terrorist bombing. Sadly, this seems to be the state of things in the Middle East and in particular in Israel.
It does not take a genius to understand that the latest run of attacks is directed against Palestinian moderates as much as Israel. The message in unequivocal: some groups are not interested in peace.
It is doubly unfortunate that the Sharon’s Government will seize these attacks as a mean to delay (maybe indefinitely) the road map implementation. The paradox of the current Sharon’s policy is that these attacks are the best testimony of its failure: it should be now clear that for all its military might, Israel cannot prevent these terrorist acts. If a solution exists, it lies in a just peace for both sides. Terrorism and military repression will not conduce to anything but more of each other.
posted by Mooraq at 3:30 PM
Fighting Terror
Bin Laden scores some points, but may pay for them in the long run
The recent terrorist acts in Saudi Arabia and Morocco demonstrates that Al Qaeda is still very much alive and dangerous. The shift towards targets in developing countries should reassure us that increased security in Europe and the US is making it more difficult for Bin Laden and co. to mount attacks in these countries. Still, fighting terrorism is a bit like trying to grasp water, the tighter one squeezes, the more water will leak out.
Nevertheless, Al Qaeda attacks could be a short-term success but a long-term failure. Having bombs blowing off in their own countries could convince many Arabs that these are indeed madmen and not only misguided Muslim brothers.
What I find a bit scary is the supply of ready-to-die fanatics that these groups seem capable of fielding. This fact should give us pause for thought about the way to stop terror and win this war.
We have to realize that policing, intelligence and military interventions, although very important in the short term, do not offer a long-term strategy to beat these monsters. Borrowing a phrase that the current British Prime Minister used to describe his approach to law and order: we must be “tough on terrorism and tough on the causes of terrorism”. This means fighting Bin Laden and his acolytes but also fight the soil where their weed has grown. Afghanistan and Iraq (especially the first) have been important in reducing Al Qaeda capabilities, but only attacking the cultural, political and economic reason of its existence will allow us to win, otherwise we will be fighting a never-ending war.
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